Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.09 – 173.5

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.1 ±9.9

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 24.93Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 89.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 102.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.7 ±9.8

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 34.61Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 44.55Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 94.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6318, 930, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 930, 1714

Auto

35.9 17%

Teleop

133.0 63%

Endgame

43.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 3197, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 3197, 2062

Auto

42.9 27%

Teleop

88.7 55%

Endgame

29.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.1pts

Blue projected score173.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 151–240
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 128.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.1Season APEX461.7

35.9Auto42.9

133Teleop88.7

43Endgame29.6

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	57
teleop	81	67
endgame	25	25
foul	5	0
total	160	149

Result

Final score

160 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Match videos

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