Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.79 – 100.66

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.7 ±9.8

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 33.5Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 43.4Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 92.89Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±11

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 29.44Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 53.68Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.54Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 3197, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 3197, 2062

Auto

40.1 25%

Teleop

87.4 55%

Endgame

31.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 6223, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 6223, 537

Auto

10.4 10%

Teleop

55.3 56%

Endgame

33.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.8pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: 78–193
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.7Season APEX205

40.1Auto10.4

87.4Teleop55.3

31.1Endgame33.7

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	16
teleop	98	12
endgame	19	6
foul	20	5
total	200	39

Result

Final score

200 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Match videos

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