Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.84 – 102.89

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±13.3

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 10.64Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 18.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 7.69Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±11.2

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 8.14Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 81.88Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 12.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8024, 7619, 2077

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 7619, 2077

Auto

10.8 28%

Teleop

17.4 46%

Endgame

9.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10522, 930, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 930, 9149

Auto

17.6 17%

Teleop

66.0 65%

Endgame

18.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.8pts

Blue projected score102.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66
Score range: 15–125
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.6Season APEX389

10.8Auto17.6

17.4Teleop66

9.7Endgame18.4

14Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	34
teleop	17	122
endgame	14	35
foul	0	10
total	41	201

Result

Final score

41 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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