Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.41 – 82.49

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.5 ±10.5

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 157.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 14.37Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 29.97Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±11.7

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 34.18Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 22.54Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 25.77Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 8701, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 8701, 2143

Auto

37.4 19%

Teleop

118.3 60%

Endgame

42.7 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6574, 537, 3418

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 537, 3418

Auto

12.8 16%

Teleop

31.6 40%

Endgame

35.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.9
Score range: 60–223
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.5Season APEX225.7

37.4Auto12.8

118.3Teleop31.6

42.7Endgame35.3

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	0
teleop	129	25
endgame	49	29
foul	5	0
total	229	54

Result

Final score

229 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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