Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.84 – 168.46

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±11.2

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 166.74Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 18.58Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 50.52Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±9.3

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 29.64Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 98.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 40.8Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 8847, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1306, 8847, 6223

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

137.8 59%

Endgame

56.3 24%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 1714, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2506, 1714, 3197

Auto

36.8 22%

Teleop

97.4 59%

Endgame

31.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.8pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.4
Score range: 147–257
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX572.9

41.4Auto36.8

137.8Teleop97.4

56.3Endgame31.5

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	39
teleop	159	129
endgame	69	55
foul	10	0
total	295	223

Result

Final score

295 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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