Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111 – 131.44

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 3.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.3 ±10.5

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 27.69Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 13.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 69.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±11.2

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 84.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 34.2Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 13.2Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6318, 9149, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 9149, 7915

Auto

17.4 15%

Teleop

67.2 59%

Endgame

29.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 6381, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 6381, 10430

Auto

16.9 13%

Teleop

79.7 63%

Endgame

29.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 90–152
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.3Season APEX380.7

17.4Auto16.9

67.2Teleop79.7

29.4Endgame29.1

10Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	43
teleop	50	62
endgame	33	7
foul	0	15
total	114	127

Result

Final score

114 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 3.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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