Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.63 – 6.62

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.8 ±10.5

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 22.19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 51.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 23.25Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.1 ±13.3

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -19.09Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 21.23Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 4.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 4786, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 4786, 537

Auto

13.7 15%

Teleop

53.2 58%

Endgame

25.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 3418, 10522

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 3418, 10522

Auto

6.7 100%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

2.5 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score6.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90
Score range: -14–118
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.8Season APEX211.1

13.7Auto6.7

53.2Teleop-3.3

25.5Endgame2.5

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	10
teleop	55	33
endgame	16	19
foul	0	0
total	89	62

Result

Final score

89 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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