Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.62 – 98.48

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±12.2

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 18.46Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 34.53Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 29.63Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±11.7

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.15Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 12.58Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 68.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8847, 4021, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8847, 4021, 2143

Auto

17.3 20%

Teleop

39.7 47%

Endgame

27.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8531, 10430, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 10430, 7915

Auto

20.9 22%

Teleop

44.6 48%

Endgame

28.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.9
Score range: 62–119
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.4Season APEX313.4

17.3Auto20.9

39.7Teleop44.6

27.7Endgame28.2

11Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	35	61
endgame	38	30
foul	5	0
total	95	118

Result

Final score

95 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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