Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.64 – 76.91

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±11.7

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 30.47Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 32.37Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 22.8Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±11.7

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 30.56Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 27.17Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 19.18Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 4021, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 4021, 7619

Auto

16.0 19%

Teleop

34.0 41%

Endgame

32.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 537, 8847

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2506, 537, 8847

Auto

11.1 14%

Teleop

38.2 50%

Endgame

27.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score76.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.7
Score range: 56–107
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232Season APEX214.5

16Auto11.1

34Teleop38.2

32.1Endgame27.7

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	54	33
endgame	35	25
foul	0	0
total	107	69

Result

Final score

107 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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