Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.88 – 65.52

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 27.73Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 26.92Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 157.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 110.5 ±12.7

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 28.86Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 27.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 9.14Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 3197, 1732

Auto

43.1 21%

Teleop

131.3 64%

Endgame

31.0 15%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6318, 1091, 8024

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 1091, 8024

Auto

11.0 17%

Teleop

45.0 68%

Endgame

10.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.9pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.4
Score range: 45–233
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 114.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.7Season APEX110.5

43.1Auto11

131.3Teleop45

31Endgame10.5

34Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	11
teleop	127	22
endgame	49	23
foul	0	0
total	224	56

Result

Final score

224 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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