Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.28 – 44.9

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±11.7

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 5.85Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 13.08Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 50.35Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±12.2

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 18.45Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX -2.44Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 28.89Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 8701, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 8701, 6223

Auto

9.2 14%

Teleop

26.1 39%

Endgame

31.0 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 10522, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 10522, 2202

Auto

16.6 36%

Teleop

9.0 19%

Endgame

21.0 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.3pts

Blue projected score44.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 24–90
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.8Season APEX267.5

9.2Auto16.6

26.1Teleop9

31Endgame21

35Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	10	48
endgame	22	15
foul	5	10
total	46	92

Result

Final score

46 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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