Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.15 – 198.55

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.6 ±9.8

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 15.81Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 81.1Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 37.24Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.2 ±9.8

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 53.73Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 51.65Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 93.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 537, 930, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 930, 4021

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

79.4 60%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 6223, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4786, 6223, 2062

Auto

27.6 14%

Teleop

113.0 59%

Endgame

50.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score198.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.4
Score range: 110–223
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.6Season APEX382.2

20.8Auto27.6

79.4Teleop113

31.7Endgame50.6

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	84	127
endgame	36	75
foul	5	0
total	145	218

Result

Final score

145 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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