Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.88 – 209.06

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±9.8

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 36.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 41.57Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 68.17Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.4 ±11.2

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 23.05Rank 14Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 160.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.62Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 2506, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 2506, 4786

Auto

19.2 14%

Teleop

86.1 61%

Endgame

35.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 1732, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6421, 1732, 7619

Auto

36.0 17%

Teleop

126.5 61%

Endgame

43.4 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.9pts

Blue projected score209.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.2
Score range: 125–230
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX434.4

19.2Auto36

86.1Teleop126.5

35Endgame43.4

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	41
teleop	32	96
endgame	0	43
foul	15	0
total	59	180

Result

Final score

59 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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