Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.58 – 100.23

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.7 ±10.7

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 77.38Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 75.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 18.49Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±11.7

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 78.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 11.06Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 11.05Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 7915, 8847

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 7915, 8847

Auto

22.1 13%

Teleop

105.5 62%

Endgame

43.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 10430, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 10430, 8701

Auto

17.8 17%

Teleop

53.0 52%

Endgame

31.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.6pts

Blue projected score100.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.4
Score range: 79–193
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.7Season APEX229.2

22.1Auto17.8

105.5Teleop53

43.9Endgame31.3

9Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	90	65
endgame	51	29
foul	0	15
total	159	131

Result

Final score

159 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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