Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
118.55 – 52.12
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Tie
Final score
73 – 73
Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±11
Season APEX 67Event APEX 34.2Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 26.89Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 57.46Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.2 ±12.4
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 6.71Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 24.07Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 21.34Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4021, 8531, 6223
61
/ 100 compatProjected
118.6 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4021, 8531, 6223
Auto
17.5 16%
Teleop
56.7 51%
Endgame
37.7 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8024, 3197, 3418
28
/ 100 compatProjected
52.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 8024, 3197, 3418
Auto
20.9 42%
Teleop
33.2 66%
Endgame
-3.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score118.6pts
Blue projected score52.1pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 66.4
- Score range
- 31–140
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
218.5Season APEX330.2
17.5Auto20.9
56.7Teleop33.2
37.7Endgame-3.8
0Consistency44
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 26 |
| teleop | 19 | 28 |
| endgame | 34 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 73 | 73 |
Result
Final score
73 – 73
Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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