Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.36 – 199.27

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±11

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 9.77Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 6.86Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 30.73Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±10.5

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 134.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 39.41Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 25.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2143, 9149, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 9149, 6574

Auto

15.8 33%

Teleop

17.1 36%

Endgame

14.4 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1306, 2506, 1091

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1306, 2506, 1091

Auto

42.0 21%

Teleop

116.9 59%

Endgame

40.5 20%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.4pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.9
Score range: 26–220
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX422.6

15.8Auto42

17.1Teleop116.9

14.4Endgame40.5

12Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	37
teleop	51	147
endgame	50	51
foul	0	0
total	109	235

Result

Final score

109 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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