Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.01 – 150.53

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±11.7

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 81.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 36.32Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 12.96Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±11.7

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -18.56Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 12.97Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 156.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 2202, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 2202, 1220

Auto

20.2 15%

Teleop

60.6 46%

Endgame

50.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 8847, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 8847, 1732

Auto

26.0 17%

Teleop

95.6 63%

Endgame

29.0 19%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 110–172
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 114.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX391.4

20.2Auto26

60.6Teleop95.6

50.2Endgame29

67Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	29
teleop	40	125
endgame	27	39
foul	0	0
total	88	193

Result

Final score

88 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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