Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.07 – 56.83

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.7 ±10.7

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 36.74Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 78.89Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 89.44Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±11.2

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX -6.53Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 42.21Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 21.15Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3418, 4786, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 4786, 7915

Auto

31.6 16%

Teleop

119.7 60%

Endgame

47.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10522, 1675, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 1675, 3197

Auto

24.3 48%

Teleop

25.9 51%

Endgame

0.7 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score56.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.2
Score range: 37–225
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.7Season APEX385.4

31.6Auto24.3

119.7Teleop25.9

47.4Endgame0.7

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	56	28
endgame	23	13
foul	0	15
total	96	67

Result

Final score

96 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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