Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
88.49 – 54.23
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Tie
Final score
48 – 48
Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±11
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 36.16Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 25.4Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 26.93Rank 14Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.3 ±12.8
Season APEX 67Event APEX 34.21Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 4.85Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 15.17Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 537, 6318, 6421
49
/ 100 compatProjected
88.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 537, 6318, 6421
Auto
10.2 12%
Teleop
48.2 57%
Endgame
26.5 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4021, 8024, 10430
42
/ 100 compatProjected
54.2 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4021, 8024, 10430
Auto
12.2 23%
Teleop
29.2 54%
Endgame
12.2 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.13
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score88.5pts
Blue projected score54.2pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.3
- Score range
- 33–109
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
181.6Season APEX133.3
10.2Auto12.2
48.2Teleop29.2
26.5Endgame12.2
15Consistency10
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 15 |
| teleop | 17 | 15 |
| endgame | 19 | 8 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 48 | 48 |
Result
Final score
48 – 48
Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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