Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
68.05 – 42.77
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
14 – 49
Prediction missed · off by 30.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 20.31Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 23.15Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 24.59Rank 14Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.6 ±12.7
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 21.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.4Event APEX -6Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 27.02Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9149, 8701, 6421
40
/ 100 compatProjected
68.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9149, 8701, 6421
Auto
19.1 28%
Teleop
25.8 38%
Endgame
22.7 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1091, 1220, 2143
31
/ 100 compatProjected
42.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 1091, 1220, 2143
Auto
10.2 23%
Teleop
16.4 37%
Endgame
17.2 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score68.1pts
Blue projected score42.8pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 25.3
- Score range
- 19–92
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
240.7Season APEX199.6
19.1Auto10.2
25.8Teleop16.4
22.7Endgame17.2
3Consistency20
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 9 |
| teleop | 2 | 21 |
| endgame | 5 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 14 | 49 |
Result
Final score
14 – 49
Prediction missed · off by 30.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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