Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.62 – 119.91

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±9.8

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 16.71Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 159Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 39.91Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±11

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 15.73Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 36.82Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 67.36Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9149, 1732, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9149, 1732, 4021

Auto

35.6 17%

Teleop

141.7 66%

Endgame

36.5 17%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7900, 6318, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7900, 6318, 6223

Auto

12.3 10%

Teleop

70.6 60%

Endgame

35.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.6pts

Blue projected score119.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.7
Score range: 99–237
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.7Season APEX206.6

35.6Auto12.3

141.7Teleop70.6

36.5Endgame35.1

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	4
teleop	90	25
endgame	35	12
foul	0	0
total	166	41

Result

Final score

166 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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