Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.03 – 69.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±12.8

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 15.09Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 35.99Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX -2.05Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±11.7

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 27.43Rank 14Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 5.02Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 36.62Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10430, 6574, 10522

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10430, 6574, 10522

Auto

11.0 25%

Teleop

10.8 24%

Endgame

22.3 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 8024, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6421, 8024, 2202

Auto

10.3 16%

Teleop

31.6 48%

Endgame

24.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20
Score range: 28–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.8Season APEX268.5

11Auto10.3

10.8Teleop31.6

22.3Endgame24.1

21Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	7	28
endgame	2	15
foul	0	0
total	23	65

Result

Final score

23 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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