Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.88 – 140.42

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.5 ±11.7

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 18.02Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 142.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 21.04Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.5 ±10.5

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 78.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 49.06Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 12.87Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3418, 1732, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3418, 1732, 6318

Auto

36.0 20%

Teleop

94.5 54%

Endgame

45.3 26%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 1675, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 930, 1675, 8531

Auto

19.1 15%

Teleop

78.9 62%

Endgame

29.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.9pts

Blue projected score140.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 119–203
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.5Season APEX379.5

36Auto19.1

94.5Teleop78.9

45.3Endgame29.7

56Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	27
teleop	197	63
endgame	38	35
foul	0	5
total	279	130

Result

Final score

279 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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