Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.42 – 88.18

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.3 ±12.4

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 31.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 5.47Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX -5.68Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±11

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 65.27Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 35.96Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -13.05Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7619, 10430, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7619, 10430, 3197

Auto

20.7 67%

Teleop

14.8 48%

Endgame

-4.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 2202, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 2202, 3596

Auto

2.9 3%

Teleop

49.2 59%

Endgame

31.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.4pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.8
Score range: 10–109
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.3Season APEX291.3

20.7Auto2.9

14.8Teleop49.2

-4.7Endgame31.8

14Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	11
teleop	47	59
endgame	16	42
foul	0	0
total	84	112

Result

Final score

84 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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