Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.1 – 155.62

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.2 ±11.7

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX -20.75Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 79.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.5 ±10.4

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 43.54Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 73.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 38.39Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10522, 1091, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 1091, 1714

Auto

18.2 23%

Teleop

40.9 51%

Endgame

21.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4021, 2062, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4021, 2062, 2506

Auto

22.2 14%

Teleop

93.1 59%

Endgame

41.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score155.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.5
Score range: 59–176
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.2Season APEX314.5

18.2Auto22.2

40.9Teleop93.1

21.5Endgame41.5

116Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	21
teleop	81	89
endgame	54	65
foul	0	0
total	173	175

Result

Final score

173 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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