Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
110.77 – 25.08
74%26%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
76 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±11.2
Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 77.81Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 48.93Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80Event APEX -15.97Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 17.49Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 16.51Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX -8.92Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4786, 4021, 10522
58
/ 100 compatProjected
110.8 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4786, 4021, 10522
Auto
16.0 14%
Teleop
58.5 52%
Endgame
37.5 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1220, 6381, 9149
10
/ 100 compatProjected
25.1 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 1220, 6381, 9149
Auto
4.0 14%
Teleop
-0.6 0%
Endgame
24.2 88%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score110.8pts
Blue projected score25.1pts
Red win probability74%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 85.7
- Score range
- 4–132
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
309.6Season APEX265.1
16Auto4
58.5Teleop-0.6
37.5Endgame24.2
63Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 12 |
| teleop | 47 | 11 |
| endgame | 6 | 14 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 76 | 37 |
Result
Final score
76 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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