Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.51 – 175.43

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.2 ±11.7

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 70.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 16.57Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 42.35Rank 14Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.6 ±10.5

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 31.29Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 89.07Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 55.07Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 3418, 6421

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 3418, 6421

Auto

20.3 16%

Teleop

58.3 45%

Endgame

52.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6318, 1714, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 1714, 6574

Auto

30.8 19%

Teleop

85.6 53%

Endgame

45.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.5pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.9
Score range: 109–196
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.2Season APEX362.6

20.3Auto30.8

58.3Teleop85.6

52.3Endgame45.5

61Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	15
teleop	70	59
endgame	38	34
foul	0	0
total	133	108

Result

Final score

133 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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