Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.11 – 35.91

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX -3.57Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 71.73Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 108.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±12.2

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.32Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -10.33Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 6223, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3197, 6223, 7915

Auto

27.1 16%

Teleop

94.9 56%

Endgame

46.3 28%

Strengths

· 7915 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 7619, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 7619, 8701

Auto

9.4 25%

Teleop

20.2 54%

Endgame

7.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.1pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.2
Score range: 15–198
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX171.3

27.1Auto9.4

94.9Teleop20.2

46.3Endgame7.5

37Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	124	27
endgame	15	11
foul	0	0
total	161	54

Result

Final score

161 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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