Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
5.05 – 170.44
11%89%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
54 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.5 ±13.3
Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -6.54Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 10.99Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 0.6Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 63.07Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 92.76Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 14.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8847, 8531, 8024
8
/ 100 compatProjected
5.1 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8847, 8531, 8024
Auto
12.0 100%
Teleop
5.3 100%
Endgame
-14.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7900, 4786, 9149
77
/ 100 compatProjected
170.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 7900, 4786, 9149
Auto
31.1 18%
Teleop
107.4 62%
Endgame
35.8 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score5.1pts
Blue projected score170.4pts
Red win probability11%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -165.4
- Score range
- -17–192
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
137.5Season APEX308.8
12Auto31.1
5.3Teleop107.4
-14.8Endgame35.8
147Consistency71
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 15 |
| teleop | 19 | 38 |
| endgame | 13 | 14 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 54 | 67 |
Result
Final score
54 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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