Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.29 – 21.75

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 48.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 36.12Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 1.92Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157 ±12.7

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 19.1Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -5.66Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.31Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 6574, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 6574, 6381

Auto

6.1 8%

Teleop

34.6 47%

Endgame

33.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 3596, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 3596, 10430

Auto

4.6 19%

Teleop

8.5 35%

Endgame

10.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.3pts

Blue projected score21.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.5
Score range: 0–108
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345Season APEX157

6.1Auto4.6

34.6Teleop8.5

33.2Endgame10.9

2Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	12
teleop	88	1
endgame	52	5
foul	0	0
total	169	18

Result

Final score

169 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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