Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.57 – 65.79

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.2 ±12.7

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 11.22Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 9.45Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 21.9Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±12.2

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.46Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 15.12Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 33.21Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10430, 2077, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10430, 2077, 6318

Auto

15.5 38%

Teleop

16.0 39%

Endgame

9.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8531, 10522, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 10522, 2506

Auto

14.2 23%

Teleop

27.5 45%

Endgame

19.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score65.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 19–90
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.2Season APEX259.4

15.5Auto14.2

16Teleop27.5

9.4Endgame19.8

27Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	9
teleop	24	17
endgame	20	9
foul	0	0
total	56	35

Result

Final score

56 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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