Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.62 – 29.76

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.8 ±9.3

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 50.49Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 56.23Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 74.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±12.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX -0.14Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 6.76Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 23.14Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 930, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 930, 1714

Auto

25.0 14%

Teleop

114.8 64%

Endgame

39.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 2506, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 2506, 6318

Auto

1.6 6%

Teleop

10.9 38%

Endgame

16.4 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.6pts

Blue projected score29.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.9
Score range: 9–203
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.8Season APEX247

25Auto1.6

114.8Teleop10.9

39.5Endgame16.4

47Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	15
teleop	148	51
endgame	66	42
foul	10	0
total	248	108

Result

Final score

248 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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