Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.3 – 69.17

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±10.4

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -5.6Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 70.02Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 65.88Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.7 ±12.2

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX -1.8Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 48.71Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

3418RoboRiot

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 22.26Rank 8Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 7900, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 7900, 1675

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

69.0 56%

Endgame

29.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2077, 4021, 3418

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 4021, 3418

Auto

23.0 32%

Teleop

38.8 55%

Endgame

9.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.1
Score range: 48–151
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.6Season APEX171.7

24.8Auto23

69Teleop38.8

29.7Endgame9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	29	46
endgame	21	46
foul	0	0
total	67	107

Result

Final score

67 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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