Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.22 – 132.73

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533 ±9.3

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 86.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 115.43Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 38.13Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.4 ±12.4

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.28Rank 24Record 4-6-2Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 2.9Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 121.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 4786, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1306, 4786, 6574

Auto

36.2 15%

Teleop

140.7 59%

Endgame

62.3 26%

Strengths

· 4786 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10430, 1220, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10430, 1220, 1732

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

88.6 68%

Endgame

19.4 15%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score240.2pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.5
Score range: 113–260
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 108.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533Season APEX404.4

36.2Auto22.5

140.7Teleop88.6

62.3Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	31
teleop	146	106
endgame	57	61
foul	15	0
total	279	198

Result

Final score

279 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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