Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.93 – 85.71

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±10.5

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 66.99Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 15.2Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 12.74Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.6 ±12.7

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 15.45Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 24.97Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7619illumiBOTi

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 45.29Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1714, 2143, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1714, 2143, 537

Auto

26.2 28%

Teleop

47.9 52%

Endgame

18.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8531, 6318, 7619

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 6318, 7619

Auto

15.9 18%

Teleop

48.4 56%

Endgame

22.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score85.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 67–114
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.7Season APEX137.6

26.2Auto15.9

47.9Teleop48.4

18.7Endgame22.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	15
teleop	98	25
endgame	59	13
foul	0	15
total	188	68

Result

Final score

188 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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