Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.56 – 69.65

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±11.2

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 16.35Rank 15Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 52.7Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 17.51Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±11

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 7.77Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 18.92Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 42.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 6574, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3197, 6574, 1220

Auto

21.5 28%

Teleop

30.0 39%

Endgame

24.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 537, 2077, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 2077, 2062

Auto

4.6 7%

Teleop

22.0 34%

Endgame

38.4 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score69.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 50–107
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.5Season APEX219.4

21.5Auto4.6

30Teleop22

24.6Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	8	54
endgame	4	16
foul	0	0
total	19	87

Result

Final score

19 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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