WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.89 – 173.81

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.2 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 158.51Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 28.09Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 153.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.9 ±11

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 21.83Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 78.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 73.92Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 7900, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7900, 1714

Auto

70.5 21%

Teleop

192.2 57%

Endgame

72.4 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2077, 6381, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 6381, 2062

Auto

27.1 16%

Teleop

87.0 53%

Endgame

51.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score339.9pts

Blue projected score173.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.1
Score range: 147–367
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.2Season APEX274.9

70.5Auto27.1

192.2Teleop87

72.4Endgame51.4

8Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	21
teleop	215	81
endgame	71	34
foul	45	20
total	398	156

Result

Final score

398 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Match videos

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