WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.65 – 160.84

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±11

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 22.71Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 54.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 51.98Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±11.2

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 39.83Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 67.69Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 53.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 1675, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 1675, 5148

Auto

27.7 22%

Teleop

61.9 49%

Endgame

36.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 4531, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 4531, 6643

Auto

36.0 23%

Teleop

77.2 50%

Endgame

42.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 103–188
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.6Season APEX353.2

27.7Auto36

61.9Teleop77.2

36.1Endgame42.4

70Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	94	80
endgame	53	43
foul	15	0
total	189	149

Result

Final score

189 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 pts

Match videos

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