Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
119.05 – 161.13
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
100 – 114
Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.7 ±11
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 18.71Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69Event APEX 41.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 58.6Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 25.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 64.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 70.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 537, 10909, 7103
61
/ 100 compatProjected
119.1 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 537, 10909, 7103
Auto
23.4 21%
Teleop
55.8 51%
Endgame
30.1 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2830, 1220, 2506
64
/ 100 compatProjected
161.1 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2830, 1220, 2506
Auto
30.7 20%
Teleop
73.9 48%
Endgame
49.8 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score119.1pts
Blue projected score161.1pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample176alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -42.1
- Score range
- 92–188
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
186.7Season APEX287.4
23.4Auto30.7
55.8Teleop73.9
30.1Endgame49.8
127Consistency12
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 25 |
| teleop | 47 | 60 |
| endgame | 31 | 9 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 100 | 114 |
Result
Final score
100 – 114
Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts
Match videos
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