WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.74 – 162.71

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±11

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 44.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 110.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 90.31Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±11.2

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 40.72Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 68.04Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 53.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9760, 93, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 93, 2202

Auto

28.1 11%

Teleop

136.2 56%

Endgame

80.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 4531, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 4531, 6643

Auto

34.8 22%

Teleop

82.9 53%

Endgame

38.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.7pts

Blue projected score162.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 136–273
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.5Season APEX353.2

28.1Auto34.8

136.2Teleop82.9

80.3Endgame38.6

57Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	41
teleop	123	52
endgame	72	57
foul	5	0
total	248	150

Result

Final score

248 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Match videos

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