WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.31 – 127.04

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±9.9

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 29.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 97.47Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 98.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±11

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 21.99Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 53.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 51.29Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3596, 7915, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 7915, 4786

Auto

39.5 18%

Teleop

132.0 61%

Endgame

45.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8701, 1675, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 1675, 5148

Auto

28.2 23%

Teleop

64.3 52%

Endgame

30.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.3pts

Blue projected score127pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.3
Score range: 100–252
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 150.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.6Season APEX219.6

39.5Auto28.2

132Teleop64.3

45.6Endgame30.8

33Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	27
teleop	152	51
endgame	40	55
foul	20	5
total	244	138

Result

Final score

244 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Match videos

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