WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.7 – 179.51

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.9 ±11

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 26.28Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 83.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 77.48Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.4 ±11.7

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 31.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 70.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 77.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2077, 6381, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 6381, 2062

Auto

29.8 17%

Teleop

98.1 55%

Endgame

49.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2830, 1220, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 1220, 2506

Auto

31.9 19%

Teleop

82.2 48%

Endgame

58.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.2
Score range: 153–215
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 151.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.9Season APEX287.4

29.8Auto31.9

98.1Teleop82.2

49Endgame58.1

60Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	40	37
endgame	60	20
foul	0	5
total	114	89

Result

Final score

114 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.