WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.18 – 106.45

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.2 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 158.26Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 27.5Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 152.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.7 ±11

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 14.79Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 38.12Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 53.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 7900, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7900, 1714

Auto

71.3 21%

Teleop

187.2 56%

Endgame

74.4 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 537, 10909, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 10909, 7103

Auto

21.1 22%

Teleop

50.4 53%

Endgame

22.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score338.2pts

Blue projected score106.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.7
Score range: 79–365
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.2Season APEX186.7

71.3Auto21.1

187.2Teleop50.4

74.4Endgame22.8

28Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	33
teleop	207	74
endgame	61	60
foul	5	0
total	340	167

Result

Final score

340 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Match videos

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