WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.54 – 243.94

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.2 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 32.2Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 156.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±9.9

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 36.18Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 104.28Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 103.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 7900, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7900, 1714

Auto

69.7 21%

Teleop

196.8 58%

Endgame

72.5 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 7915, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 7915, 4786

Auto

41.6 18%

Teleop

143.3 61%

Endgame

49.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score350.5pts

Blue projected score243.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.6
Score range: 216–379
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 761 vs event baseline 154.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.2Season APEX460.6

69.7Auto41.6

196.8Teleop143.3

72.5Endgame49.3

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	57
teleop	237	171
endgame	72	88
foul	50	5
total	440	321

Result

Final score

440 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Match videos

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