WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.65 – 179.17

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11.2

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 40.42Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 48.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 43.05Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.4 ±11.6

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 118.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 25.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 35.14Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1675, 4786, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1675, 4786, 6643

Auto

24.6 19%

Teleop

74.0 56%

Endgame

33.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 3596, 2077

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 93, 3596, 2077

Auto

36.0 20%

Teleop

99.2 54%

Endgame

46.9 26%

Strengths

· 93 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score179.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.5
Score range: 108–203
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX228.4

24.6Auto36

74Teleop99.2

33.5Endgame46.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	15
teleop	119	96
endgame	39	85
foul	5	0
total	203	196

Result

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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