WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.91 – 122.47

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±11.7

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 114.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 41.3Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 27.04Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.3 ±12.2

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 40.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 34.47Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 47.14Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 10909, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 10909, 4531

Auto

33.9 18%

Teleop

104.6 57%

Endgame

45.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7103, 11158, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 11158, 7900

Auto

21.9 18%

Teleop

63.5 52%

Endgame

36.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.9pts

Blue projected score122.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.4
Score range: 98–207
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX205.3

33.9Auto21.9

104.6Teleop63.5

45.6Endgame36.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	66	22
endgame	35	21
foul	25	0
total	150	56

Result

Final score

150 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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