WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.44 – 258.93

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.1 ±11.7

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 71.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 26.48Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 40.42Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.5 ±11.2

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 157.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 88.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 13.05Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 2077, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 2077, 10553

Auto

26.4 20%

Teleop

57.6 44%

Endgame

48.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 2202, 8847

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 2202, 8847

Auto

70.6 28%

Teleop

127.6 50%

Endgame

57.0 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.4pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.5
Score range: 111–286
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.1Season APEX449.5

26.4Auto70.6

57.6Teleop127.6

48Endgame57

108Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	80
teleop	67	135
endgame	48	59
foul	0	0
total	137	274

Result

Final score

137 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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