WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.65 – 80.21

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.4 ±11.2

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 25.73Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 102.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 8.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±12.2

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 16.48Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 15.28Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 48.45Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 4786, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 4786, 11158

Auto

22.7 17%

Teleop

81.2 60%

Endgame

32.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10522, 5586, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 5586, 5148

Auto

18.9 26%

Teleop

28.8 40%

Endgame

24.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.7pts

Blue projected score80.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 53–164
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.4Season APEX222.6

22.7Auto18.9

81.2Teleop28.8

32.5Endgame24.1

57Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	58	53
endgame	15	33
foul	0	5
total	91	113

Result

Final score

91 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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