WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.37 – 132.02

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.7 ±9.8

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 24.06Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 149.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 12.13Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.1 ±12.2

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 67.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.2Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 44.64Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 1714, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7900, 1714, 537

Auto

26.3 15%

Teleop

103.1 58%

Endgame

48.5 27%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 9425, 9760

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 9425, 9760

Auto

27.6 21%

Teleop

67.1 52%

Endgame

34.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.4pts

Blue projected score132pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 105–212
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.7Season APEX229.1

26.3Auto27.6

103.1Teleop67.1

48.5Endgame34

88Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	26
teleop	127	54
endgame	45	50
foul	10	15
total	225	145

Result

Final score

225 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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