WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.15 – 155.39

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 256

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±11.7

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 38.31Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 16.03Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 109.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±11.7

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 20.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 45.55Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 89.31Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 10287, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 10287, 93

Auto

11.9 8%

Teleop

102.2 66%

Endgame

41.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 6643, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 6643, 7915

Auto

31.6 22%

Teleop

80.0 56%

Endgame

32.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score155.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 128–191
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.7Season APEX366.4

11.9Auto31.6

102.2Teleop80

41.7Endgame32.2

93Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	82	164
endgame	71	54
foul	10	0
total	178	256

Result

Final score

178 – 256

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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